So who thinks they will be driving electric in 10 years?

[graham-xrf]

Looking at the prices, maybe not me! My car is a "middle of the range" Mercedes 2.1 litre 140HP diesel estate car from 2006. It goes like on the day I got it, and it's the best car I ever owned. BUT - even with it's high efficiency low emissions tech with catalytic converter, it's still an ageing diesel, a definite no-no here in UK.

I have experienced a fully loaded Tesla model S in "ludicrous mode" from standstill to 60mph in about 3.5 seconds, taking on the Basingstoke Ring Road while driver did not have his hands on the steering wheel. The same car navigated itself to a charging station while playing 70's and 80's rock ballads from Spotify, and booked a dinner table at a pub just by speaking at it!

For the money, ($=outrageous), the owner never has to pay for a charge again. For the money, I would have expected a more supercar finish inside. The Jaguar I-Pace and F-Pace seem better. Then there is the whole host of 2019 me-toos, all thumping the green tub. Unless somebody knows for sure that his cramped, tiny wheels, garish coloured ugly little campaign for a greener life used electricity that was guaranteed to came from a windmill, I a going to count it as a fossil-burning phony!

Here in UK, in the future, there will not be any new petrol cars made after 2040, and the move is to bring the date forward.

Its the price, the prices! However much one would like to tap into the AI driver-assisted Jaguar, Mercedes, Tesla, BMW, A-List life, I can't see it as something I would ever have the means to join in and get used to.

 

[vtcnc]

When IF the prices get to an affordable family budget friendly level, I'm in.

 

[dirty tools]

No way
i will keep my diesels

 

[Reddinr]

I'm in one now but it was a huge departure from how cheap I usually am with cars and a stretch to the budget. I get annoyed (I'm easily annoyed) when I drive our gas car now. You have to START the engine? What?

I do think they will become more affordable. There is lots of battery research going on that is bound to result in lower weight, cost, higher range etc. and once real production volumes exist the overall build costs will come down and more competition will tend to lower prices. It happens with most any technology that survives. My wild guess is that in 10 years that maybe 25-30% of families will have one. Probably many more in 20 years once people get used to them and a couple of car purchase cycles have passed by.

I think the model S with will do 0-60 in 2.9 sec. The normal model S (2 motors) will do it in about 3.2 sec. Good "clean" fun!

There are good arguments against electric being a cure-all to energy usage and pollution. There is no simple solution that exists today that cures our fossil fuel dependence so I'll keep that Cheveron stock for now. These make more sense in places where there is hydro-electric, where you can charge off of solar or with some other clean source. It makes less sense if the energy comes from coal or oil-fired generation though.

 

[rwm]

I think in 10 years a lot of people will not be driving at all. The electric cars will do all the driving. I would have one now if the range was a little better.
Robert

 

[Superburban]

I drive an 85 Dodge pickup I have had since 87 or so. Its from the era, where the same parts were used for many years, so many parts are still available. I have no intentions of dumping it any time soon. Compare that to my Mothers 2017 Pacifica, and many of the parts are one or two year, one application only. So 10 years from now, how easy will it be to get an axle shaft, wheel hub, caliper, what ever. That car, when the warranty is over, will likely go. And I will likely still have the 85 as my daily driver, with two 77's for backups. One of the realities of being an disabled vet, is all the financial plans I once had, are just a dream from long ago. The closest thing I will see to electric, is my 70's Era golf cart.

With all the specialty parts, such as the LED lights, sensors, computers, door motors, locks, glass, ect. I do not see the used car market being as big as it is now. It will be new, lease, or the city bus.

 

[jbolt]

I'm on board with electric when they are on par with price, performance, range and cost of a gasser and recharge in 30 min or less.

Of course here in California an all electric may not make sense when PG&E turns the power off every time the wind blows.

 

[graham-xrf]

I drive an 85 Dodge pickup I have had since 87 or so. Its from the era, where the same parts were used for many years, so many parts are still available. I have no intentions of dumping it any time soon.

Superburban: You have it right. I know they now count the energy cost of production as part of it's "sin", but consider..
Suppose some diligent dude kept riding his 1947 truck, or 1975 Jeep Cherokee even, but carefully enough to not be tearing up parts. Maintained, that vehicle still running today owes the planet less than planned obsolescence culture modern piles of plastic! Putting the steel back into the furnace every 7-15 years is not so good!

 

[graham-xrf]

I think the model S with will do 0-60 in 2.9 sec. The normal model S (2 motors) will do it in about 3.2 sec. Good "clean" fun!

Reddinr: The one I was taking a ride in had the 2 motors. Driver pal was showing me the big screen goodies. I tucked in because I expected it would be fast. Guys in the back were chatting, one turned sideways, and had no idea what was about to happen. It was (relative) chaos. It may have been close to 3 seconds. I was "counting Mississippi(s)". The guys took me to an air show event, where, as it happened, there was a line of wall-to-wall Teslas! Clearly more folk are using electric.



When I think about all the cars that come out onto the roads every morning. Even with a conservative estimation, say the journey might be 1/2 hour or so, using (say) 70% of the (140hp). 47kW.h of energy, and as much again on the way back. I am not sure the electrical grid can supply all that energy displaced from burning fuel in engines. OK, you can't charge up in 5 minutes (yet). This for 1 vehicle! You are right in that the battery technology will get better, and we will find a way to get an overnight charge to the cars parked out on the street (not everybody has a house with a driveway).

Last count for a year period, UK had 20% energy from renewables, and managed 30% during a week in 2018. Also in April 2018, UK ran for 3 days in a row without burning coal. OK - so it was run on a mix of natural gas and nuclear + wind-farms etc.

 

[Reddinr]

Speaking of older trucks, I had an 87 Ford F250 long bed 4WD up until last December, <60000 miles and so reliable. So easy to work on if needed. Some A** in an Escalade blew through a stop sign right in front of me. No chance to stop at all. They got tossed pretty good and ALL of their air bags inflated. They were thrown into a chevy truck that pummeled the other side. Luckily no one was seriously hurt. I put the truck in reverse and parked on the roadside to clear the intersection for the fire department. Engine still ran and I think I could have driven it home as long as I stopped to pick up loose body parts now and then. It was totaled though. I still miss my truck.