So who thinks they will be driving electric in 10 years?

[MikeInOr]

The larger issue here is who won't be driving an electric vehicle and the answer to that is "most of us". It is simple supply of the current battery raw materials which will limit the number of electric cars on the road. For instance each Tesla has about 50 pounds of lithium in the battery. World production of lithium per year is currently 160,000 tons which would limit the number of vehicles produced with lithium batteries to 640,000 per year. That is less than 10% of vehicles sold new in the USA each year.

Further, current reserves of lithium in the ground are around 15 million tons. Which would limit the number of vehicles using batteries with lithium to 600 million. That would cover the US and a good chunk of the rest of the world but would leave 400 million current vehicle owners without a vehicle.

Of course as demand goes up mining companies will find more lithium deposits to be mined but it is highly likely that those deposits will be far harder to extract than the current proven reserves. Prices will increase accordingly. And that says nothing of the environmental damage done over the years by the production and use of lithium. In my lifetime we have gone from using lead in everything from paint to fuel to limiting the uses and shutting down production within the US. I suspect shortly after lithium is mandated to be used to power all cars it will be attacked much in the same way as fossil fuels have been as bringing about the "end of the world" and the production and use will be severely curtailed and probably taxed radically to deter its' use.

Then there is the issue of generating the electricity to charge all those cars. It will take construction of power plants which 99% of will use fossil fuels and 1% will be renewable. There won't be any nuclear because 3 mile island.

I will stop before I get political and end by saying that no matter what, someone will always want humans to have zero footprint on the planet, yet they have a footprint on the planet.

I don't believe the assumption that the production lithium is always going to be a limiting factor in electric vehicle construction is a valid assumption.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...s-energy-density-can-rise-10-fold-researchers

I think Nickle makes up something like 10% of the earths core... second only to iron as the earths most abundant element.

 

[C-Bag]

While many hybrid cars use Lithium ion batteries my Toyota hybrid uses Nickle metal hydride batteries instead of Lion batteries. A lot of research is going into boosting the power density of NiMH batteries to make them more capable for EV's. I use NiMH batteries for my Dewalt 18v tools... there is no way you would get me to switch to the Dewalt 20v Lion tools! My first set of cheap after market Dewalt 18v compatible NiMH batteries are about 4 years old now... I have NEVER run out of juice! They certainly do not seem to be loosing any capacity!

I agree that EV technology is still young and has a good ways to go before it is going to take over as our primary vehicle propulsion method... but it is gaining ground every day.

I looked at EV's when I purchased my hybrid... but like you said they are not mature enough to get my money... yet! I believe some day they will be and look forwards to that day rather than fear that day.



Economy of scale will help a lot, so will advances in battery technology.

Did you buy the Benz B-Class? My sister (down in CA of course) leased one for a couple years. My niece was only stranded twice due to not allocating enough time for a full charge. They had to call a tow truck and pay the towing bill. I like that Tesla promises to take care of towing in the event of a discharged battery.

P.S. I can't stand car salesmen. Completely worthless in my experience.

Nope, didn't buy the B-Class, bought the Volt. In 50yrs of driving and lots of cars my first American car. I'm not sure they make the B-Class anymore and GM has threatened again to drop the Volt. This was the first American car I was impressed enough to buy and if GM drops the Volt I'll drop GM. It's not personal, it's just business as the CEO's like to say.

 

[savarin]

I cant wait for the end of infernal consumption engines.
noisy and smelly

 

[Superburban]

Aren't the electric vehicles still subsidized, or tax credits, which is coming to an end soon? Also, how long until the states figure they are loosing too much fuel tax, and go to a mile driven tax? its been in the discussion for awhile now.
As the electric vehicles numbers increase,I think you will see the cost of ownership go up. I would be interested in seeing what the cost per mile is, when the electric cost is factored in.

 

[graham-xrf]

There is always the fact that internal combustion engines can be run on water, the guy here in Oregon
who figured out how to do it and was nearly at marketing stage with his injector converter to hydrogen
was mysteriously killed before he could market it !!!
If the right people don't profit it won't happen !! Unfortunately, that's the way it is.................

Hee Hee. I like it!
Water is the very "ash" of the energy that the fuel gave up. Water is the very stable stuff that is left, and it is the very hell to pull those atoms apart again. Our fuel is hydrogen, conveniently held as a potent liquid by being joined to carbon (gasoline etc.) One small can I can easily carry can move my car about 40 miles. Try pushing a car a few yards to appreciate it! Hydrogen is the single most postive element (for it's size) at the extreme left top of the periodic table. Oxygen, except for Fluorine is about the most negative down at the bottom right. They combine together explosively (car engine) and yield the energy. We can tear them apart again by putting back the energy, and make fuel again.

Anyone who tells you water is a fuel - umm - what can I say? He is likely wrong! It is not any kind of "fact" that engines can be run on water. If that were true, the millions of smart folk on the internet would have acknowledged it by now! Water injection, or water-methanol injection does assist the combustion control of temperatures, and efficiency, but is not "water as a fuel". These were much researched up to and through WW2 for aircraft engines.

 

[C-Bag]

We've been subsidizing the oil industry to the tune of billions for decades , not to mention tax cuts meanwhile they make the biggest profits in the history of the world. Let them have oil rights on public lands for basically nothing. Let them destroy the Gulf and countless other ecosystems like Alaska (Exxon Valdez) and walk away for the US taxpayers through super fund boondoggles pick up the tab. From its very inseption when standard oil dumped gasoline in the Hudson River at night because they didn't have a use for it until the auto industry came along, to the buy up and destruction of trolley systems across the US it has been an evil alliance between the oil co's and automakers. Not to mention the wars. Gen.Smedly Butler the most decorated Marine talked about making the world safe for Standard Oil in his book War is a Racket and his speech to Congress in '33.

 

[bakrch]

I was hoping that my next commuter would be an EV.

Had a '10 VW TDI that was sold back through the dieselgate scandal. As a result my '17 Tacoma has 120k miles on it already, and I will likely go Corolla Hybrid next as I would like to keep the truck around for as long as possible (2TR-FE 5spd, which was discontinued). I have a thing for Toyota pickups with 4 bangers, just sold my '94 22RE last year and it was still running great. The rust, however ... just didn't have time to address it.

 

[Flyinfool]

We already have adequate power generation in most (not all) parts of the country. Most people will charge at night when most of the factories and big offices are shut down, This will actually smooth out the load on the power plants and allow them to run more efficiently. The problem is in the other end of the power distribution. In an average neighborhood the grid can only handle around 3 or 4 electric cars per city block, a newer neighborhood might handle 5 or 6. Most neighborhoods are not wired to supply that many amps to every house at the same time. It takes a lot of amps to charge one of these cars overnight. And for those that think a car can be charged in 30 minutes........ It is simple math, if the battery in a Telsa S is 375 volts and 90KWh, and you need to charge it to 80% in 30 minutes, that means that you will be pumping in the power at nearly 400 volts and at 640 amps. This is very lethal power levels for home owners to be messing with. Like plugging it in while it is raining or snowing out and everything is wet. Now factor in winter and everything is covered with road salt and wet, road salt in water is very electrically conductive. Now that charger if connected to a 220 volt system, will be pulling over 1,000 amps out of the wall. Most small factories do not have that much power available. People do not consider these type of numbers when they are wanting a faster charge.

Unless there is some major breakthrough in battery or power generation like finding a good source of dilithium crystals. Electric will not replace IC in my lifetime. It will remain in the category of a second car, or a toy. Cross country travel is totally impractical with any current or proposed form of EV.

 

[DangerZone]

I'm a big fan of gas (or diesel) engines. I don't see myself switching anytime soon, and I think people are a little over estimating the timeline on all electric cars as well as self driving.

The one situation that I see this changing: I am hoping to get as much solar and wind energy set up at my home as possible(this itself isn't cheap and will be several years out), but if I can get enough home produced energy setup, an electric car might be feasible for commuting.

 

[savarin]

I was in China this time last year for the first time.
what struck me the most was the phenomenal number of electric scooters and small motorbikes running around.
I didnt see a single petrol powered two wheeler the whole time even though I was looking for one.
Of course this may be due to the ban on IC motorbikes in a lot of cities and the loose regulations on scooters.
Their electric car market is growing in leaps and bounds exceeding the numbers of US electric cars produced.
So in answer to the original question .... yes, we will all be driving electric vehicles in the reasonably close future.