What Stock would you use to make a new back gear shaft?

Hey guys first an foremost, thank you for all your help answering my questions about my old 101/618 the last few days. Instead of buying a $64 back gear shaft ( it's pretty worn ) I figured I'd just turn one for a 1/8th of the cost. I have all the measurements I need, It's pretty much a 3/8 stock to start before I get it down just a hair. I wanted to see what you all thought about the material that should be used? I was thinking of 4340, 1018, 1215, 4140 PH. Something along these lines since my local dealer has 3/ 8 in stock. Let me know what steel you would use.
Thanks
Of those listed in your post I would use 1215. Assuming the price is right.
 
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