Electric Vehicles on the horizon? Do your homework

[ttabbal]

Right now, if you are the kind of person who thinks 100k miles is just getting started, an EV might not be the best option. Not that I don't think they can do it, but we just don't have much data on longer term use. It might be great, but maybe not.

I can say that hybrids might be a good option there. There was a well known Prius taxi that had ~250k miles in some insane short time like 4 years.

For replacement cost, particularly of the battery, I plan to use rebuilt. Perhaps individually replacing cells or modules as needed. Much like fixing up an ICE engine vs buying a brand new one. Working on the battery should be done with caution. If you have experience with high power electricity, you can likely manage the risks. It's nothing really new, just not something car mechanics are used to. You can already buy parts or whole packs online.

Newer EVs are using heat pumps to help make heating more efficient. My Leaf is older and uses resistive heating. It works, but is less efficient. Hybrids use the coolant like normal gas cars. I just expect to have a bit lower range in the winter.

I'm in Northern Utah, and have a couple of winters on the leaf. It hasn't been a problem. The difference isn't huge, I drop maybe 10 miles of range. Sitting in stopped traffic for a long time could be an issue. I would avoid that when possible and ration heat use until I could get clear.

Really, everything has good and bad points. Pick your poison. I like how they drive, and lower cost for driving. Less junk in the air is nice too. I'm not a zealot about it though. What works for me might not work for you.

 

[Superburban]

ttabbal and ericc,
Some very good information!!
ttabbal, you would trade in your car before the warranty is up I assume? Or you just drive them until the battery no longer serves your needs?
I don't think I would own one past the warranty period. Knowing the cost of a replacement renders the vehicle cost prohibitive to me.
I keep my vehicles a long time, 250,000 miles at least.

Its not the battery that worries me, as much as the electronics. switches, sensors, displays, CPU's, ect. Its hard to find a the little stuff for cars from the 90's, but at least you can rig something from a different year, or model to work. Good luck getting a replacement dash display/radio/heater & AC control, 20 years from now.

What does a replacement inverter unit, AC compressor, 12 volt module, CPU, drive motor, ect cost now? how many are used on different models, or years? I see many parts not being made by OEM, or anybody years from now.

Yea, my hybrid will be traded in before the warranty, as much as I like it. Unless the world goes super bat crazy, I will still be driving one of my 3 77 dodge trucks, the 77 RC, or the 97 van, I can fix, and even make many parts if needed. Plus I have spares to last quite awhile.

Generating heat in an EV is going to create a major battery drain. If you are the only EV in that snow storm traffic jam, no big deal. If all the vehicles are EVs, it is a big deal. Every vehicle will have to be towed in. What if the Tow trucks are all EVs too?
Is there any data on summer mileage vs hard winter mileage for EVs?

The advertised range for electric only on mine, is 32 miles IIRC. In the spring and fall, I can often get over 40, even 50 before the gas engine kicks in. Winter and Summer it has been 25 to 30. Most of it depends on how many stops I make. Mine will use the gas engine to warm things up if needed.

A straight EV, can warm up and use the electric from the utility, before it is unplugged. which will help a lot.

 

[ErichKeane]

Generating heat in an EV is going to create a major battery drain. If you are the only EV in that snow storm traffic jam, no big deal. If all the vehicles are EVs, it is a big deal. Every vehicle will have to be towed in. What if the Tow trucks are all EVs too?
Is there any data on summer mileage vs hard winter mileage for EVs?

My wife's car actually has a heat pump which ends up being incredibly efficient. It only costs about 10% of range at full blast.

I doubt a whole traffic jam of people are going to all kill their battery at once, same as it doesn't happen with AC in an ICE.

 

[dirty tools]

I will be to old to drive before electric vehicle can replace the type of transtation I have/like
they are not for me

 

[ErichKeane]

Its not the battery that worries me, as much as the electronics. switches, sensors, displays, CPU's, ect. Its hard to find a the little stuff for cars from the 90's, but at least you can rig something from a different year, or model to work. Good luck getting a replacement dash display/radio/heater & AC control, 20 years from now.

What does a replacement inverter unit, AC compressor, 12 volt module, CPU, drive motor, ect cost now? how many are used on different models, or years? I see many parts not being made by OEM, or anybody years from now.

Yea, my hybrid will be traded in before the warranty, as much as I like it. Unless the world goes super bat crazy, I will still be driving one of my 3 77 dodge trucks, the 77 RC, or the 97 van, I can fix, and even make many parts if needed. Plus I have spares to last quite awhile.



The advertised range for electric only on mine, is 32 miles IIRC. In the spring and fall, I can often get over 40, even 50 before the gas engine kicks in. Winter and Summer it has been 25 to 30. Most of it depends on how many stops I make. Mine will use the gas engine to warm things up if needed.

A straight EV, can warm up and use the electric from the utility, before it is unplugged. which will help a lot.

The electrics are required to do the 10/20 year support for parts like all other cars. Most of those concerns apply just to new cars, not EVs.

One thing that makes EVs perhaps a better chance is that the manufacturers are all sharing a lot of those drivetrain parts.

 

[matthewsx]

For me it’s about technology.

Engineers are working hard on EV’s because the businesses they work for see this as the future. If they had a crystal ball they might be doing something different but they don’t.

Early adopters are usually people who have the money and the patience to do so. If you’re not one then you should wait and see.

investments are made by businesses with the best info they have. Just like individuals…..

 

[mksj]

I must be missing something on the cost comparison, as it appears that I do not see factored in the rising cost of electricity. So an average electric vehicle requires 30 kilowatt-hours to travel 100 miles — the same amount of electricity an average American home uses each day to run appliances, computers, lights and heating and air conditioning and lets say for comparison you have a ICE that gets 20 MPG. In high cost areas for electricity, they play around with the pricing and in some cases as your consumption goes up so does the price per kW/h. I would be paying 51 cents/kW/h for charging and home electric because I would be pushed up to the highest tier after about 5 days into the billing cycle, so the electricity cost per 100 miles would be $15, the ICE car gets 20 MPG would use 5 gallons at lets say $4/gallon or $20, so a saving of $5 per 100 miles. This also assume ideal charging at 100% efficiency, and does not account for the effect of ambient temperature on the range of an electric vehicle. Then one factors in the useful life of the current generation of batteries and replacement costs say every 8 years. One of our Tucson friends had one of the earlier honda hybrids and was on their 3rd set of batteries after about 10 years. Ouch.

I am also pessimistic about battery life and heat, when I lived in Tucson, AZ car batteries had to replaced every 2 years because of the heat. I tried some of the high end supposedly military duty types and maybe got a few more months. Add the heat and a few rapid charge cycles, let alone sitting in traffic with the tarmac in the 130+F range, I do not see an 8-10 year battery life with the current battery technology.

I do have solar, 2 years ago I doubled my capacity thinking I might go for a hybrid, but at the time the hybrids only had around 30 miles of battery range and you only got maybe 2-4 MPG more than the non-hybrid model. You are also hauling around a lot more weight. It all sounds attractive, but I question the numbers and the costs. What I also do not see outlined is the carbon footprint through the whole life cycle, from raw materials -> finished product -> use -> recycling/waste. Also where all the energy is coming from, many states already have failing electric grids with blackouts, whats going to happen when everything is electric powered and the infrastructure is not there to support it. Look at the rolling blackouts say in the bay area last year, the power was out for days mid summer.... not good.

 

[Ulma Doctor]

like Mark, i'm pessimistic as to where this breakthrough, magical, power source is going to come from.
the Energy Fairies ????

if we increase solar farming here, we replace food crop area-
we can all imagine what happens when energy, becomes more important than food....
Save us from ourselves

 

[Superburban]

The electrics are required to do the 10/20 year support for parts like all other cars. Most of those concerns apply just to new cars, not EVs.

Correct, but at what cost? Back in the 70's and 80's, many parts were the same on many models, and for many years, so aftermarket support is still half decent. By the 90's, many parts were changed every year, and not used between models, and it has become worse as time went on. A simple headlight switch, Dodge used the same one on almost every model from the late 60's to the late 90's. Come the 2000's, they only used them on one model, for a few years. with different ones depending on if you have fog lights, and what not. $20 for the earlier ones, and $60 or more for the later.

You are right, it is not just ev's. I would not plan on driving anything newer then 2000, beyond the warranty. I have had my 77 Ramcharger since 84, and it has been all over the country many times. If it was not so hard for my mother to get in, It would be my daily driver. But since I am tasked with taking care of her, I need something she can get into easily.

One thing that makes EVs perhaps a better chance is that the manufacturers are all sharing a lot of those drivetrain parts.

Not many. Brakes, half shafts, and some suspension stuff.

 

[ErichKeane]

Correct, but at what cost? Back in the 70's and 80's, many parts were the same on many models, and for many years, so aftermarket support is still half decent. By the 90's, many parts were changed every year, and not used between models, and it has become worse as time went on. A simple headlight switch, Dodge used the same one on almost every model from the late 60's to the late 90's. Come the 2000's, they only used them on one model, for a few years. with different ones depending on if you have fog lights, and what not. $20 for the earlier ones, and $60 or more for the later.

You are right, it is not just ev's. I would not plan on driving anything newer then 2000, beyond the warranty. I have had my 77 Ramcharger since 84, and it has been all over the country many times. If it was not so hard for my mother to get in, It would be my daily driver. But since I am tasked with taking care of her, I need something she can get into easily.



Not many. Brakes, half shafts, and some suspension stuff.

The shared components are most of the electrical drivetrain. The converters and chargers and inverters are all commodity products shared amongst manufacturers. They are way less specific than a new water pump or oil pan at least.