-
Welcome back Guest! Did you know you can mentor other members here at H-M? If not, please check out our Relaunch of Hobby Machinist Mentoring Program!
Dry powder .................when is the question ?
- Thread starter mmcmdl
- Start date
I started investing in stock just prior to the 2008 crash. At the low of the crash, I had lost half of my life's savings - so much that I'd have to work and save for 10-20 years to make up for it. It was absolutely crushing. But in the end, it was the best catastrophe I've experienced.
As the crash started I started buying more, and lost money on that. I bought yet more, and lost on that too, and more, and lost, and more, and lost. Everything lost money!
Finally, March 2009 came around. I had only a little "dry powder" left, and I made my last purchase. By then, I wasn't crying about losing half my money, the bargains out there were so insane that I was crying because I couldn't buy even more!
Needless to say, that was the bottom, and it was a rocket-ship up and up, mostly, since then. In hind-sight, I should not have taken the risks I did, but it worked out. I've since sold the excess stock, and I'm back to a sane percentage that I can live with through thick and thin.
We aren't near the level of 2008's disaster now. Sure, I (and many of you) lost a lot since the start of the year, but you and I are still up big time compared to a year or two prior. "Anchoring" (focusing on your last peak as if that's meaningful) is not healthy.
I don't check the markets obsessively (as I did in 2008/2009). I'm no longer tempted to buy dips, nor to sell when I imagine that a "top" is in. I do have concerns about inflation, but am not making major changes in response.
Just invest steadily at a level that allows you to sleep at night. Keep it simple! Invest in a rock-bottom-cost S&P-500 mutual fund or other all-in-one product (e.g. target retirement, etc.). Don't play with individual stocks, especially meme stocks and cryptoinvestments scams. Don't pay attention to the financial news media, whose entire marketing strategy is to alternate instilling fear and greed in their audience. Especially skip the "get rich the fast and easy way" books and blogs - investing doesn't work that way.
For financial and investment questions, visit bogleheads.org for solid advice by an audience as experienced, sympathetic and helpful as this one is. Their Wiki section also has some of the best and most comprehensive advice you can find on a range of financial and investment topics.
Bogleheads.org
As the crash started I started buying more, and lost money on that. I bought yet more, and lost on that too, and more, and lost, and more, and lost. Everything lost money!
Finally, March 2009 came around. I had only a little "dry powder" left, and I made my last purchase. By then, I wasn't crying about losing half my money, the bargains out there were so insane that I was crying because I couldn't buy even more!
Needless to say, that was the bottom, and it was a rocket-ship up and up, mostly, since then. In hind-sight, I should not have taken the risks I did, but it worked out. I've since sold the excess stock, and I'm back to a sane percentage that I can live with through thick and thin.
We aren't near the level of 2008's disaster now. Sure, I (and many of you) lost a lot since the start of the year, but you and I are still up big time compared to a year or two prior. "Anchoring" (focusing on your last peak as if that's meaningful) is not healthy.
I don't check the markets obsessively (as I did in 2008/2009). I'm no longer tempted to buy dips, nor to sell when I imagine that a "top" is in. I do have concerns about inflation, but am not making major changes in response.
Just invest steadily at a level that allows you to sleep at night. Keep it simple! Invest in a rock-bottom-cost S&P-500 mutual fund or other all-in-one product (e.g. target retirement, etc.). Don't play with individual stocks, especially meme stocks and crypto
For financial and investment questions, visit bogleheads.org for solid advice by an audience as experienced, sympathetic and helpful as this one is. Their Wiki section also has some of the best and most comprehensive advice you can find on a range of financial and investment topics.
Bogleheads.org
Last edited:
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2018
- Messages
- 465
+1
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2016
- Messages
- 11,489
It's still dry .
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2016
- Messages
- 11,489
Here is where it gets interesting . Being off work I've had nothing going into any funds . I'm cleaning out the garage , the basement , the other basement , taking crap up to the auctioneer to unload , and figure I'll have $ 2.00 to invest in a growth fund . In 30 years , I'll enjoy that micro brew . 
- Joined
- Jul 31, 2020
- Messages
- 765
In 2008 I made out like a bandit. My gut told me to move to bonds about 3 months before the crash. After the crash, I moved it back to stocks (which were at a depressed value). My biggest regret was waiting a bit too long to jump back to stocks; I missed some of the really explosive growth. I also missed out on some of the last minute frantic stock growth immediately before the crash by moving to bonds 3 months early.
Anyone who hasn't figured out where they are going to jump to, before the next crash are behind the curve. You should already have that next step planned at this time (you should have specific holdings for your money planned which have safe-haven value). My gut says we are about 6 to 18 months away from the next crash. But remember, what makes wealth are large swings in stock value (in either direction). Think of the market like a pump. Select your investment strategy accordingly. Nobody makes real money when stock values are stable.
Anyone who hasn't figured out where they are going to jump to, before the next crash are behind the curve. You should already have that next step planned at this time (you should have specific holdings for your money planned which have safe-haven value). My gut says we are about 6 to 18 months away from the next crash. But remember, what makes wealth are large swings in stock value (in either direction). Think of the market like a pump. Select your investment strategy accordingly. Nobody makes real money when stock values are stable.